Working papers

Predictable Forecast Errors in Full-Information Rational Expectations Models with Regime Shifts
with Ina Hajdini, September 2023

Measuring Small Business Dynamics and Employment with Private-Sector Real-Time Data
with Etienne Lalé and Lien Ta, July 2023
Appendix | Video | FESAC presentation | Media coverage: WSJ, WSJ, WSJ, Politico 

On the Inefficiency of Non-Competes in Low-Wage Labor Markets
with Tristan Potter and Bart Hobijn, July 2023

Disincentive Effects of Pandemic Unemployment Benefits
with Andreas Hornstein, Marios Karabarbounis, Etienne Lalé and Lien Ta, March 2023
Richmond Fed Economic Brief

The Impact of Chinese Trade on U.S. Employment: The Good, The Bad, and The Debatable
with Nick Bloom, Kyle Handley and Phil Luck, July 2019

Downward Wage Rigidity in the United States: New Evidence from Worker-Firm Linked Data
with Erika McEntarfer, December 2018
(this work started as a collaboration with Jim Spletzer; a draft of this earlier work can be found here)

News Shocks and Inflation: Lessons for New Keynesians
with Chris Otrok, April 2017

Unpublished work

New Evidence on the Relationship between News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure
with Chris Otrok, June 2016

Do Workers Feel Entitled to High Wages? Evidence from a Field Experiment
with Matthieu Chemin, October 2014

Asset Value Constraints in Models of Incomplete Factor Taxation
with David Arseneau and Sanjay Chugh, November 2009

Optimal Capital Taxation in an Economy with Capital Allocation Frictions
with David Arseneau and Sanjay Chugh, September 2008

Search Frictions in Physical Capital Markets as a Propagation Mechanism
with Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, April 2007